Israelis Vote Tuesday in Knesset Race Likely to Produce No Clear Winner

Israeli voters head to the polls on Tuesday for a parliamentary election that polls predict will leave no single faction with a majority. The race is a direct contest between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc and a diverse group of parties united by their opposition to the incumbent. Neither side is projected to secure the 61 seats required to form a government unilaterally, creating a high likelihood of a political stalemate.

Netanyahu, the country’s longest-serving prime minister, seeks to replicate his current coalition structure. He argues that only he can build a government without relying on Israel’s Arab parties, which he contends pose a strategic risk. His campaign emphasizes the ongoing military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as the recent conflicts with Iran. President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu last week, warning that the United States might have to handle the Iran threat alone if Netanyahu loses power. Netanyahu’s campaign slogan asserts that the choice is between a right-wing government or a nuclear threat from Iran.

The opposition, known as the change bloc, is led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot of the centrist Yashar party. Eisenkot, who lost family members in the Gaza war, positions himself as a unifying figure distinct from the polarizing leadership of the incumbent. His party’s candidate list is approximately half women, a sharp contrast to the male-dominated Netanyahu coalition. Eisenkot has criticized Netanyahu’s recent social media posts, including an AI-generated image of a nuclear explosion over Tel Aviv, as a campaign of fear. A central promise of his platform is the launch of a state inquiry into the intelligence failures that preceded the October 7, 2023, attacks.

The final outcome will hinge on variables that polling struggles to capture, primarily voter turnout among Arab Israelis and supporters of Likud. Arab citizens constitute roughly 20% of the population. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, noted that higher Arab turnout makes it less likely for Netanyahu to form a government within his current coalition parameters. Jehad Abomoch, a cafe owner in the predominantly Arab city of Baqa al Gharbiya, said many in his community view the last four years as a social and military catastrophe.

Two new parties focused on the conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jews are hovering near the electoral threshold. Their entry could disrupt the traditional alliances that support Netanyahu. If neither bloc commands a majority, the Knesset may enter weeks of negotiations. Precedent in Israeli politics allows for minority governments, where the opposition abstains rather than votes against formation. Alternatively, the country could face another election, a scenario that has occurred five times between 2019 and 2022 due to electoral deadlock.

Plesner stated that if politicians adhere strictly to their campaign promises and refuse to switch sides, another election is the probable result. He added that most politicians are disinclined toward that outcome, suggesting that backroom deals or minority arrangements are more likely to resolve the impasse. The results will determine whether Netanyahu remains in power or if a new government, potentially led by Eisenkot, takes office.