Bettors Assign 73% Odds to Talarico in Texas Senate Race

Prediction markets are pricing in a complete Democratic victory in the seven contested U.S. Senate races scheduled for Tuesday. According to data from Kalshi and Polymarket, Democratic candidates hold the lead in every one of these key contests. The odds indicate that Democrats are expected to sweep all seven seats.

In Texas, Democratic nominee James Talarico faces Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Bettors on Kalshi assign Talarico a 73% probability of winning the election. The Daily Beast reports that participants have wagered approximately $73 million on this specific Texas market. Paxton continues to campaign despite ongoing controversies.

Other states show similar margins favoring the Democratic party. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers with a 78% chance of victory on Polymarket. In Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown holds a 70% chance of defeating incumbent Jon Husted on Kalshi, and a 71% chance on Polymarket.

Democratic prospects are strong in Maine and Kansas as well. Troy Jackson has a 72% chance of winning in Maine, while Adam Hamilton has a 63% chance in Kansas, according to Polymarket figures. These figures suggest a unified trend across the battleground states being monitored by political gamblers.

Iowa presents a tighter race for Republicans. Trump-endorsed Republican Ashley Hinson is the only GOP candidate in the seven-race group who does not currently hold the advantage. Democrat Josh Turek leads Hinson on both prediction platforms. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola has a 71% chance of winning according to Polymarket, in a race complicated by two Republicans on the ballot with the same name.

President Donald Trump addressed the midterm prospects on Monday near the Reflection Pool. He noted that sitting presidents often lose their party’s majority in these elections. “For some reason, the sitting president doesn’t win the midterms. But we gave this a very strong shot,” Trump said. His approval rating stands at 32%/Ipsos poll.