Texas Senate Race Between Paxton and Talarico Tops Spending Records
The contest has drawn over $500 million in funding and record early voting, with Talarico leading most recent polls.
By Jenna Mitchell ·
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and state representative James Talarico are battling for the U.S. Senate seat in a race that has become the most expensive in American history. The two campaigns have collectively spent more than $500 million. Paxton’s effort received substantial financial backing from Elon Musk, who is described in reporting as the richest person in the world. This heavy spending followed a shift in public opinion where Talarico began to appear ahead in surveys after the summer months.
The race dates back to the 2026 primary season. Senator John Cornyn, who held the seat for 24 years, lost the Republican primary to Paxton after President Donald Trump endorsed the attorney general’s candidacy. Talarico, a Democrat, emerged as the challenger in a state where the party has not won a Senate seat in nearly four decades. The last time a Democrat took this office in Texas was in 1988, when Lloyd Bentsen won reelection with over 3.1 million votes against Republican Beau Boulter’s 2.1 million.
Voting behavior in the state is currently at record levels. The Texas Secretary of State reported that more than 7.7 million people cast early votes. This figure represents 40.5% of the 19 million eligible voters in the state. It is the highest participation rate for a midterm election in Texas history. Officials and observers are watching how first-time voters and the Latino community, particularly in border regions, will vote. In 2024, those areas showed strong support for President Trump, but the impact of his administration's strict immigration policies on Hispanic voters remains a key variable.
Polls show Talarico leading in most recent surveys, although the margin varies by methodology and sample size. This is the first time in decades that a Democratic Senate candidate has led the majority of polls in Texas. The outcome will determine if the Republican hold on the seat, which began in 1988, ends. A win for Talarico would break a 38-year streak of Republican control over the state’s Senate representation.
The race also carries national weight. The U.S. Senate control is currently in dispute for the coming years, including the final two years of the Trump administration. The result in Texas will influence which party holds the balance of power in Washington. The election is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, following the extended period of early voting.
