Bengals favored at 62% for Madrid showdown
Cincinnati is trading as the favorite over Atlanta in the NFL's international matchup, with the game kicking off at 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday.
By Ethan Cooper ·
Prediction market traders on Kalshi price the Cincinnati Bengals as 62% likely to defeat the Atlanta Falcons in Sunday's NFL international game in Madrid. The share price for a Cincinnati victory stands at $0.62, reflecting the betting consensus for the 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff.
The odds reflect Cincinnati's recent trajectory, as the Bengals have won three consecutive games. In each of those victories, the offense led by quarterback Joe Burrow scored at least 31 points. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each NFL contest 10,000 times, assigns the Bengals a 53% win probability.
Atlanta enters the matchup after losing three of its last four games. The Falcons suffered a 16-0 defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, a loss in which the Buccaneers did not complete a single pass. The game was played in adverse weather conditions against a strong Tampa Bay defense.
The Falcons will welcome back pass rusher James Pearce Jr., who returns from suspension for this contest. Top wide receiver Drake London is also expected to be more available for quarterback Michael Penix Jr. compared to last week's shutout. However, running back Brian Robinson Jr. is inactive due to a hamstring injury.
Market participants also trade on the margin of victory. A Bengals win by more than 3.5 points is priced at $0.46, while the Falcons covering that spread or winning is priced at $0.55. The Bengals allow the seventh most yards per game, which could open opportunities for the Falcons offense if Penix maintains accuracy.
The total points market sets the over/under line at 52.5. Traders can buy the over at $0.51 and the under at $0.50. Cincinnati has allowed 36 points to the Tennessee Titans in one of its recent wins, though that game featured a different offensive dynamic than the upcoming matchup.
New users on Kalshi can access the markets with a promotional offer. Sign-ups using code CBSSPORTS55 receive a $55 bonus after making trades totaling $25 or more. The platform offers risk management tools including trading breaks and personalized funding limits, with event contracts regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
