Likud leads Israel vote but lacks majority to form government

Preliminary results from Israel's October 27 election indicate that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party will become the largest bloc in the Knesset. However, the party does not hold enough seats to govern alone. Neither Netanyahu nor his main rivals currently possess a clear path to forming a stable government.

As of Wednesday, vote counting was still underway. Likud was projected to win approximately 26 seats, which accounts for 21.7% of the 120-member parliament. The remaining 94 seats are split among 10 other parties that cleared the 3.25% national threshold required for representation. This fragmented result mirrors the political dynamics of the 2021 election, where a smaller party eventually secured the premiership.

Israel's electoral system differs fundamentally from the United States. Instead of two dominant parties, 38 candidate lists were approved for this election, with 11 projected to enter the Knesset. Voters select party lists rather than individual candidates. Seats are distributed based on each list's share of the valid national vote. This structure allows religious, secular, left-wing, right-wing, and Arab-led parties to compete independently.

Forming a government requires assembling a coalition with at least 61 seats. A party with only a handful of seats can hold veto power over the government's composition. Small parties often demand specific Cabinet ministries, such as Finance or Education, in exchange for their support. This dynamic allows a leader whose party received far fewer votes than the top winner to become prime minister if they can build a broader parliamentary alliance.

The 2021 cycle provides a direct precedent for the current standoff. In that election, Likud won 30 seats, the most of any party. Yair Lapid's centrist Yesh Atid party finished second with 17 seats. Neither party leader took office. Instead, Naftali Bennett, whose right-wing Yamina party won only seven seats, became prime minister.

Bennett and Lapid negotiated an eight-party coalition that spanned the political spectrum. The group included right-wing parties, centrists, left-wing Labor and Meretz parties, and Ra'am, an Islamist Arab party. Their shared goal was to replace Netanyahu. Under the agreement, Bennett served as prime minister while Lapid served as foreign minister. The coalition collapsed within a year due to internal disagreements, leading to a new election in November 2022 and Netanyahu's return to power.

Current projections show a similar gridlock. Netanyahu's traditional right-wing and religious allies are projected to hold 53 seats, eight short of a majority. A four-party opposition bloc is projected to win 48 seats. Two Arab-led lists are expected to secure 19 seats combined. On paper, the opposition and Arab parties have enough seats to replace the current government.

In practice, several opposition leaders have rejected the idea of governing with Arab parties or relying on their parliamentary support. This creates a deadlock where the arithmetic allows for an alternative government, but political willingness may not exist. Personal rivalries between party leaders often influence these negotiations as much as ideological differences do.

The next stage involves intense bargaining among parties that spent months campaigning against one another. Negotiators will determine who leads the government, which ministries each party controls, and what policy compromises are required to keep the coalition intact. The outcome will depend on whether parties can overcome their differences to form a stable majority.

The final seat count is not yet determined, but the preliminary data suggests the coalition process will be complex. No single faction holds the decisive edge. The decision on who becomes prime minister will rest on the ability of party leaders to secure enough partners to reach the 61-seat threshold in the Knesset.