Florida Favored Over Miami

The No. 1 Florida Gators are 5.5-point favorites to defeat No. 14 Miami in the 2026 Orion180 Tipoff Classic. The in-state rivals will meet on Monday, November 2, marking the 71st contest in their history. Tipoff is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida.

Florida enters the season as the top team in the AP Poll for the second time in program history. The Gators finished last season 27-8 and retained much of the core that won the 2025 national title. Miami, led by head coach Jai Lucas in his first year, posted a 26-9 record and finished 24th in the final AP Poll last year.

Betting markets have set the total points for the game at 160.5. The SportsLine Projection Model simulated the matchup 10,000 times to determine its prediction. The model projects the teams will combine for 158 points, a total that falls under the posted line. In its simulations, the under hit in 58 percent of the outcomes.

The model points to recent trends in the rivalry to support its pick. Each of the last eight meetings between Florida and Miami has produced fewer than 150 combined points. Their most recent contest in November 2025 ended with exactly 150 points scored, which was well under the listed total of 171.5 at that time.

Defensive metrics from the previous season also align with a low-scoring affair. Florida ranked second in the SEC with its scoring defense last year. Miami ranked fourth in the ACC in points allowed per game. Last season, the under connected in 67 percent of Miami games where the Hurricanes were underdogs, and in 60 percent of Florida regular season games.

The SportsLine model reports an 11-1 record on its top-rated over/under picks dating back to 2025. Its top-rated college basketball side picks stand at 28-22 over the same period. The model indicates that one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of its simulations, though it directs readers to its platform to identify which team that is.